Prediction and odds for the game: Dortmund (1/4) v Mainz (9/1)

We are backing the home win

When: Wednesday, 17th June 2020, Kick-off 19:30

Where: Signal Iduna Park

On Wednesday night, Dortmund host Mainz at Signal Iduna Park, as the home side looks to finish the Bundesliga campaign on a high.

Dortmund

The home side head into this game with the knowledge that leaders and rivals Bayern Munich only must win just one of their remaining games to seal yet another Bundesliga title. It will be their eighth straight top-flight title.

To be fair to Dortmund their recent league form has been strong, despite their title challenge seemingly being over. Lucien Favre’s team has recorded victories in nine of their last ten Bundesliga matches. Last time out, they needed a stoppage-time Erling Haaland goal to record a 1-0 win at struggling Fortuna Dusseldorf.

The game followed an uncharacteristically low-scoring trend for BVB, as four of their last five have now produced under 2.5 goals. Favre’s team have produced some decent defensive displays of late in the German top-flight, conceding just two goals in their last six Bundesliga outings.

As is the custom with Dortmund in recent years, BVB have been strong on home soil of late in the German top-flight, winning five of their last six league games in the Bundesliga. Favre’s team has built that good home run on a stellar defensive record, as they have kept clean sheets in four of their last five home games.

Mainz

Things are looking decidedly dangerous for the visitors when it comes to Bundesliga survive. The visitors head into this clash just three points clear of the relegation zone. A 1-0 defeat at home against Augsburg means that Achim Beierlorzer’s team have claimed victory in just one of their previous league outings.

Their recent games in the German top-flight have been low-scoring, as their last four league matches have produced under 2.5 goals.

Mainz have not been awful on their travels of late in the Bundesliga, embarking on a three-game unbeaten run. The problem is that two of those three games finished all-square. They have also won three of their last eight league matches on their travels, which is a record you may expect from a team who are not among the leading lights in the Bundesliga.

Their recent league matches on their travels have been high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals scored in eight of their last ten away games in the Bundesliga.

Conclusion

It is hard to see Mainz getting anything out of this game even if Dortmund now have little to play for this season. We are backing the home win, but we are deciding to take a punt on under 2.5 goals. Dortmund have not been at their best of late in attack, so we may not see the avalanche of goals you would expect under normal circumstances.

Verdict: We are backing the home win at odds of 1/4 and/or under 2.5 goals scored at odds 11/5. (All odds are taken from Bet365).

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