Prediction and odds for the game: Netherlands (11/10) v Italy (5/2)

We are backing the draw at odds 23/10

When: Monday, 7th September 2020, Kick-off 19:45

Where: The Johan Cruyff Arena

On Monday night, the Netherlands host Italy at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Group A1 of the Nations League, in a game that could be pivotal in the group.

Netherlands

The home side kicked off the current Nations League campaign with a 1-0 home win over Poland, courtesy of a Steven Bergwijn strike. The win means that the Oranje have a mixed record in the competition. As despite making the final in the last edition, suffering a 1-0 defeat against Portugal, the Netherlands have won just three of their seven matches in the competition over 90 minutes. Their recent matches in the Nations League have also been relatively low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals scored in three of their seven games.

The Netherlands do have a good home record in the competition, though, as they have won all three of their home games in the competition, having kept clean sheets in all three matches. Interim boss Dwight Lodeweges faces a test of his managerial skills in this clash, as he attempts to continue his team’s good form in the competition.

Italy

The visitors recent good run of form was slightly dented by a 1-1 home draw against Bosnia-Herzegovina last time out. The draw means that the Azzurri are unbeaten in their previous 15 international games, having recorded 12 wins. The result last time out ended an 11-game winning run for Italy. The game also saw a prolific run of form in front of goal come to an end, as they had scored at least twice in their previous ten outings.

The visitors do not have a great record in the Nations League since its inception in 2018. They have won just one of their five games in the competition, picking three draws and also suffering one defeat. The Azzurri’s games in the Nations League have been low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals scored in all five of their matches in the competition.

When it comes to away games in the fledgeling competition, the visitors have won one and lost one. However, more recently Italy have won their previous six away games while scoring at least two goals in their last five matches on their travels.

Conclusion

The Oranje were slightly unconvincing against Poland last time out, while Italy were also not at their best in the draw with Bosnia-Herzegovina. Those two performances suggest that this game could well be a slightly cagey one. We have decided to back the draw, as the Netherlands are good on home soil, but Italy are such a hard team to beat. The other bet we are recommending is the under 2.5 goals scored, as both teams games in this competition have been relatively tight affairs.

Verdict: We are backing the draw at odds of 23/10 and/or under 2.5 goals scored at odds of 4/5. (All odds are taken from Bet365).

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Who will come out on top between these two giants of the European game?